Buchumschlag

The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices a quantitative assessment

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Personen und Körperschaften:	Quint, Dominic (VerfasserIn); Venditti, Fabrizio (VerfasserIn)
Format:	E-Book
Sprache:	English
veröffentlicht:	Frankfurt am Main, Germany: European Central Bank, [2020]
Gesamtaufnahme:	Europäische Zentralbank: Working paper series ; no 2467 (September 2020)
Schlagwörter:	OPEC; > Erdölwirtschaft; > Erdölpreis; > Preisänderung; > Fördermenge; > Nachfrage;
Quelle:	Verbunddaten SWB Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen
Zusammenfassung:	Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPE... Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market tight in the face of a large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective in sustaining the price of oil? Between 2017 and early 2020 when the OPEC+ strategy was in place, oil inventories fell substantially and the price of oil reached a peak of around 80 USD per barrel, from a minimum of 30 USD in 2016. This suggests that the OPEC+ strategy had a significant impact on the global oil market. Yet, to what extent did crude prices actually reflect OPEC+ production cuts rather than other factors, like swings in demand for oil? How would the price of oil have evolved had OPEC+ not cut supply? This paper provides an answer to these questions through a counterfactual analysis based on two structural models of the global oil market. We find the impact of OPEC+ on the market was overall quite limited, owing to significant deviations from the assigned quotas. On average, without the OPEC+ cuts, the price of oil would have been 6 percent (4 USD) lower.
Beschreibung:	Volltext: PDF
Umfang:	1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten); Diagramme
ISBN:	9789289943840 928994384X
DOI:	10.2866/600764

Online

Volltext: Zusatzinformationen online abfragen

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2467~c8f35853cc.en.pdf?1db509a192a073131f3ddae5ee2a92f1

https://doi.org/10.2866/600764

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229081

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